Reactions

I've been fascinated by the variety of reactions to last week's turbulence. Some of my colleagues have been stiff-lipped throughout, not displaying any sign of concern or relief whatever the news. Others are visibly nervous about their jobs. Only a handful have remembered to express their anxieties in terms of their clients' welfare rather than their own.

And we have managed to lose some of our clients considerable sums, leaping out of equities in the initial panic and then dithering too long before getting back in. The funds of funds have done rather better, and have lessened the blow in most portfolios. But still, every time my PA announces a client on the line requesting a valuation...

At least most of them are expecting the worst. In general they haven't been too shocked by our incompetence, dwarfed as it is by global market forces. And we haven't even had to manage their expectations - the media have done that for us.

The strangest reaction, though, came from one of our youngest equity analysts who claims he knew all about SocGen, as far back as Monday. A contact in the stricken bank itself, apparently. Now why would he claim a thing like that if it wasn't true? Attention-seeking? Not a smart tactic in these times. Delusion? More likely, I'd say. When asked why he said nothing about it he muttered something about no one believing him - which I suppose would be true. All the same... I don't believe him.

Flux

I've been resisting writing anything during these tumultuous days. When everything is in flux it's difficult to resist making forecasts of one kind or another, even though one knows that the only reliable prediction is that events are bound to make a mockery of one's soothsayer efforts.

My first reaction to the share tumble at the beginning of the week was to think, 'Oh well, here it is at last. Now we can get on with a good market freefall and then pick ourselves up and nurse our bruises as we have done so many times before. Finally, the uncertainty is over.' But it seems that would have been a premature posting. The market has rallied, undaunted even by the astronomically appalling news from SocGen. So where do we go from here? Up? Down? Really, we are no better off in terms of understanding our fate than we were last year.

It's becoming quite frustrating, this hovering.

As for the SocGen rogue trader, the mind boggles. How could it happen? How is it investors seem so relaxed about this extraordinary development? €5 billion, lost by a low-ranking nobody. This modern world. I really am past understanding it.

Supposedly it can all be sorted out with a rights issue, and if not no doubt the French government will intervene a great deal more swiftly and effectively than our own in the case of Northern Rock. Nevertheless, it is staggering to see another major bank so critically wounded. I'm still getting used to the idea that Merrill Lynch and UBS - to private bankers, the great untouchables of our universe - should be forced by their subprime misfortunes to go cap in hand to the sovereign wealth funds. My ilk have tended in recent years to view the Chinese basically as newly-fattened prey, ripe for hunting - the same way we saw the Arabs for decades. The notion that Arab and East Asian governments now have a controlling hand in ivy league western banks is disconcerting to say the least.

So, no predictions. I for one have no idea what's going on. All I can truthfully say is it is indeed an interesting time to be a banker.

Resolution no. 010108

New Year's Resolutions.

I'm in favour, actually, and have even kept a few down the ages. I've made three this year, two of which are still goers. The association with Jan 1 is arguably rather childish, but they're useful arbitrary kicks to one's own backside.

I'm less enthusiastic about being subjected to other people's resolutions. So far this week I have received 23 group emails from colleagues informing me of their 2008 pledges. Someone started it with a trite missive about his new teetotalism (were we being invited to applaud or commiserate?), and this started a rash of follow-up emails, office-wide, documenting the abstentions, enforcements or reinstigations that have been sworn to this week.

Most sensible: "Never again trust the FSA"

Most optimistic: "Achieve double-digit growth for my clients' portfolios"

Most pessimistic: "Hold onto job until birthday (date unspecified)"

Most snide: "Remember to sense check analysis eminating (sic) from the equities team"

Most political: "Make more effort to share information with colleagues and look for opportunities to assist them when they are struggling"

Most bizarre: "Be more red than blue"

Most laughable: "Be kind, selfless, sensitive and soulful" (this is a private banker we're talking about)

And mine? Surely you don't care? I wouldn't.

Since you insist, they concern foie gras, treasury bonds, and being nice to my wife. The first two are yet to be tested.